<<Principles>>—–Ray Dalio
PART II: LIFE PRINCIPLES
1 Embrace Reality and Deal with It
2 Use the 5-Step Process to Get What You Want Out of Life
3 Be Radically Open-Minded
4 Understand That People Are Wired Very Differently
5 Learn How to Make Decisions Effectively
Life Principles: Putting It All Together
Summary and Table of Life Principles
该部分的关键词：reality, 5-step process, radically open-minded, two barriers (ego and blind spot), thoughtful disagreement, self-assessment of ourselves and others
1：Embrace Reality and Deal with It
核心是如何面对reality和基于此行动。根据我的kindle阅读高亮和笔记记录，强调几点
- feedback loop of rapid learning基于反馈的学习，类似于德鲁克强调的“反馈分析法”
- accept reality and act based on the reality
- Dreams + Reality + Determination = A Successful Life.
- be open-minded: rapid learning and effective change 开放好奇，推动快速学习和有效改进
- learn how reality works from the nature
- higher-level thinking，高阶思考！很多人只从用自己的角度来评价客观事物，就是典型的一级/低级思考，正确的做法是作者在后文提到的“将自己看作一部机器”，客观的分析自己。
- Weigh second- and third-order consequences. 这与上面的higher-level thinking有相通之处，既要看直接结果，又要看更长远的结果。
- think abstractly and logically 不要混淆情绪和理性，注意大脑的直觉和逻辑之分
- look at things from nature’s perspective，从自然和进化（evolution）的角度看待事物，不进化就死亡，很类似精益思想的“持续改进”
- Reflection 反省三个方面： 自己，他人和世界，作者也介绍了这三个方面，比如认识自己和大脑的运行方式，意识到他人与自己的巨大差异，认清楚现实并积极拥抱世界。
- Own your outcomes. 控制你能控制的，不要抱怨超出你的控制的。
You take responsibility for making your decisions well instead of complaining about things being beyond your control. Psychologists call this having an “internal locus of control,”
- Look at the machine from the higher level. 从系统/机器的角度看待一切，这也是higher-level thinking的表现。（1）把自己看作一个机器，脱离小我看完整的自己，决定、目标、如何修改自己，大部分人都陷在自己体内，看不到完整的自己，只关注别人的错误和缺点，就像《beyond feelings》所强调的”mine is better“ bias； 看不到完整的自己也容易导致ego心态。
I call this ability to rise above your own and others’ circumstances and objectively look down on them “higher-level thinking.” Higher-level thinking gives you the ability to study and influence the cause-effect relationships at play in your life and use them to get the outcomes you want.
- Asking others who are strong in areas where you are weak 从别人那儿获得反馈和帮助，直面自己的缺点，改正或者修改自己的方向（发挥长处），
- 该部分汇总了五大类决定和思考方向：
Ultimately, it comes down to the following five decisions:- 1.Don’t confuse what you wish were true with what is really true.【
- 2.Don’t worry about looking good—worry instead about achieving your goals.【重要的是实现你的目标，而非让别人感觉你很聪明很棒，所以切忌不懂装懂，切忌自傲自大，虚心take in all the relevant information】
- 3.Don’t overweight first-order consequences relative to second- and third-order ones.
- 4.Don’t let pain stand in the way of progress.
- 5.Don’t blame bad outcomes on anyone but yourself.
备注1：想起了一句话，好像是李开复说的：接受我们不能改变的，改变我们能改变的，用智慧区分这两者的不同。第一句强调的就是这儿所说的“reality”，第二句强调的则是我们的着眼点；而且第二句是以第一句为前提的，而两者的不同则又取决于我们的视野和成长速度等。
备注2: 关于high-level thinking，可以翻译为“高阶/高纬度思考能力”，最好的举例是我正在读的另一本书《“错误”的行动》的第21章”选美竞赛和股票投资“，这一章介绍了赌博和股票投资的相同之处是猜测别人是怎样行动的。 用”螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后“来形容的话，蝉是最naive的简单思考，螳螂就是second-level或二级参与者，黄雀则是three-level，人就是four level了。 强调我们要从更高的角度去看待问题，既要看自己，又要看别人。
备注3: 关于进化的观点，作者也推荐了这方面的图书和观点，比如强调“人只是基因和模组的载体“的观点，图书是《机器人叛乱》
备注4:关于 Weigh second- and third-order consequences，我想起了《一课经济学》——经济学和生活智慧 这本书，既要看短期和局部的影响，又要看长期和整体的影响。
2: Use the 5-Step Process to Get What You Want Out of Life
读完之后基于我自己的理解，介绍本章内容，然后再补充书中的几个摘抄，最后写几个备注。
5-step process：
- find your goals based on your values
明确自己的目标，我想要什么？学会取舍（不能什么都要）和优先级排序（要事第一，时间是有限的），当然还要做好平衡（这个书中好像没有提） - find the question
不要急于行动，先确定问题是什么！ “如何充分的定义问题”，内容类似于《你的灯亮着吗》：发现问题的真正所在，记住“问题是现状和目标之间的差距”。 - find the root cause of the question
确定问题之后，就要分析问题的原因，重要的是找到本质原因，而避免停留在简单的因果关系上，这就像上一部分说的High-level thinking - make a plan
明确了目标、问题和根本原因之后，就需要制定行动计划，规划/描绘从现状到达目标的路径图，这一部分有点像《麦肯锡教给我的思考武器》中的内容。 - take action
行动，保持良好的习惯，明确优先级，定期回顾和反馈分析。
作者介绍完上面的五步之后，强调每个人各有长处，发现自己在这几个阶段的缺点之后，有两种校正办法，一是依靠自学提高，二是与他人合作（三人行，必有吾师）。
You can either fix it or you can get the help of others to deal with it well. There are two paths to success: 1) to have what you need yourself or 2) to get it from others. The second path requires you to have humility.
提到与他人合作，作者就重点强调了humility，很多人的失败都源于此。（ego，作者在后文从心理学的角度阐述了Ego的原因）。
既要有开放的心态谦虚学习，又有比较完整的心智模式。缺少其一都是瘸子，如下图所示 。
Having both open-mindedness and good mental maps is most powerful of all.
备注1: 很多问题分析工具和决策工具，都和上面介绍的这五步（目标——问题——本质原因——计划——行动）相近。比如《创新算法》的创新方法论【暂且只有介绍创新思想的第一部分读书笔记：《创新算法》第一章创新技术（读书笔记）】 ，涉及到明确目标是什么，不要急于行动；比如绘制理想解，规划更清晰的目标；比如分解系统，使用“时间、空间、尺寸”来分解系统等。
备注2: 公司的精益工具之一是A3表格，是一种结构化思维工具，依次分析“current condition”，“target”，“problem”和“Act”。和这儿的方法也很相近。
3: Be radically open-minded
这一部分主要是介绍“认知方式”和“思考方式”，(the way that our brains work)，尤其是强调了常见的两种思维错误，然后给出解决办法。
3.1 Recognize your two barriers.
首先提出了我们最常见的两个障碍：ego和blind spots，
The two biggest barriers to good decision making are your ego and your blind spots.
-
Understand your ego barrier.
Ego：自负、自大，过度自信，自我为中心，
Ego就是“mine is better”或者“自我中心偏见”，解决办法就是充分了解潜意识自我，从而可以避免自动化行为(避免flight-or-fight reactions)，“潜意识自我”也就是作者书中所说的lower-level/animal you。
Ego的人，具有潜意识的防御性格（subliminal defense mechanisms），将批评视为攻击。从心理上来讲这是可以理解的，解决办法就是让logical/conscious you压制emotional/subconscious you。
备注：讨论Ego必然要说大脑的运行方式，也就是“两个自我”的观点，潜意识和意识之分。Ego是一种潜意识行为的表现，需要充分的意识层面压制。关于潜意识和潜意识、两个自我及推荐读物，参考思维阅读心得小结，这方面的图书很多，推荐《思考，快与慢》，《超越智商》等。
备注：有一本专门介绍Ego的心理学图书，是“ego is the enermy”，去年读了一点，之后考虑快速浏览一下。
-
Understand your blind spot barrier.
blind spot：每个人都有主观的偏见/思考偏误，客观的知识盲区
blind spots强调（1）只从我们已知的信息做判断，不知道自己有很多不知道的，（2）现有的思考方式限制了我们更准确、客观的观察自己、他人和世界。
blind spots—areas where your way of thinking prevents you from seeing things accurately.
most people never see or understand the ways in which their ways of thinking make them blind.
关于blind spots，有几点提醒：（1）避免对抗模式（维护自己的desire或已有观点），（2）通过提问题（ask question mode）来know your spots，（3）多交流多讨论，三人行必有吾师，通过合作和提问解决问题，切忌闭门造车，作者强调不同的人具有不同的思考方式，所以合作会产生1+1>2的效果，也就是我们所说的“三个臭皮匠顶个诸葛亮”。（4）努力做到evidence-based，用客观事实和证据来辅助判断，而非用主观的假设和感觉。
很多人聪明但是不成功，很大程度上都是在于这两个心理/认知障碍。
In my opinion, these two barriers—ego and blind spots—are the fatal flaws that keep intelligent, hardworking people from living up to their potential.
3.2 Practice radical open-mindedness.
介绍上面两个障碍之后，这一部分介绍如何action：
- know that you are blind 意识！
- b. Recognize that decision making is a two-step process: First take in all the relevant information, then decide. 【后文还会详细介绍决策的两步法：Collect information first, then decide】
- c. Don’t worry about looking good; worry about achieving your goal.【重要的不是prove you are right，也就是避免Ego，切莫死要面子活受罪啊】
- First learn (tank in) more, then output more【多学习，切莫好为人师，足够多的输入才有高质量的输出】
- gain the perspective that comes from seeing things through another’s eyes, 【换位思考】
- f. Remember that you’re looking for the best answer, not simply the best answer that you can come up with yourself. 【寻找答案，而非证明自己的正确】
3.3 Appreciate the art of thoughtful disagreement.
介绍讨论的艺术，上面已经反复强调，讨论的目标不是证明自己的正确，而是为了客观的讨论，所以具体讨论时，要注意提出问题而非陈述观点，控制讨论的氛围（避免陷入只顾），calm down，不要下意识否定
most people are instinctively reluctant to disagree.
3.4 Triangulate your view with believable people who are willing to disagree.
多向有异见的人（believable people who are willing to disagree）学习讨论。【查理芒格在《穷查理宝典》中说过，如果没有了解否定你的人的观点，那你就没有充分了解自己的观点】
3.5 Recognize the signs of closed-mindedness and open-mindedness that you should watch out for.
留心closed-mindedness信号并纠正【习惯养成的trigger】，列举了几个signs
- 1.Closed-minded people don’t want their ideas challenged.【固守己见】
- 2.Closed-minded people are more likely to make statements than ask questions.【教育别人而非提问题】
- 3.Closed-minded people focus much more on being understood than on understanding others.
- 4.Closed-minded people say things like “I could be wrong… but here’s my opinion.”【宁错不改】
- Open-minded people are always more interested in listening than in speaking; they encourage others to voice their views.【听的少讲得多】
3.6 Understand how you can become radically open-minded.
谦虚humility，知道自己不知道的
Regularly use pain as your guide toward quality reflection. 【把“烦恼”作为改进和反思的契机，就像 《两秒精益》读书笔记：精益思考的那样，遇到麻烦代表又有了改进的机会】
your ability to deal well with “not knowing” is more important than whatever it is you do know.
considering the reasoning of others instead of stubbornly and illogically holding on to your own point of view. To be radically open-minded, you need to be so open to the possibility that you could be wrong that you encourage others to tell you so.
So it is invaluable to know what you don’t know.
In thoughtful disagreement, your goal is not to convince the other party that you are right—it is to find out which view is true and decide what to do about it.
you are up for the challenge of becoming radically open-minded, the first step in doing so is to look at yourself objectively.
If you’re radically open-minded, you’ll live up to your potential.
4: Understand that people are wired very differently
人与人之间的思维方式（ways of thinking）差异性很大，切莫自以为是的认为对方也是这么想的。比如新手和专家的思维方式/学习方式不同，比如有人是conceptual擅长想象而有些人是literal擅长语言能力（前者是右脑思维更多，后者是左脑思维更多），不了解这一点，沟通就像“鸡同鸭讲”，自然就无法形成协同工作，如果没有团队的力量就更难达到我们的目标了。
the more conceptual people thought the more literal people had no imagination, and the more literal people thought the more conceptual people had their heads in the clouds.
While “know thyself” and “to thine own self be true” are fundamental tenets
强调人与人在本质上的不同，了解自己的长处和短处，作者创建了basball cards，记录每个人的不同长处和短处，从而形成最好的团队搭配和促进协作。
社会化活动是人类的一种本能倾向，就像《社会动物》一书的观点那样，所以有意义的工作和有意义的人际关系（Meaningful work and meaningful relationships）是幸福的重要来源 。
作者再次强调了大脑的内在冲突——两个自我之间的冲突，强调增强意识（conscious, logical mind），了解什么时候应该使用animal you/潜意识，什么时候应该使用higher level you。具体实现方法是建立一系列的习惯，作者强调了《习惯的力量》一书的核心观点，习惯是一个“触发——行动——奖励”的循环过程。
Then I read Charles Duhigg’s best-selling book The Power of Habit, which really opened my eyes.
Duhigg’s core idea is the role of the three-step “habit loop.” The first step is a cue—some “trigger that tells your brain to go into automatic mode and which habit to use,” according to Duhigg. Step two is the routine, “which can be physical or mental or emotional.” Finally, there is a reward, which helps your brain figure out if this particular loop is “worth remembering for the future.” Repetition reinforces this loop until over time it becomes automatic.
Habits put your brain on “automatic pilot.”
为了强调人与人的差异，作者在这儿介绍了左脑和右脑的功能差异，【更早就应该提到这个了，这也是所有认知心理学的基础】
The left hemisphere reasons sequentially, analyzes details, and excels at linear analysis. “Left-brained” or “linear” thinkers who are analytically strong are often called “bright.”
The right hemisphere thinks across categories, recognizes themes, and synthesizes the big picture. “Right-brained” or “lateral” thinkers with more street smarts are often called “smart.”
量化人与人之间的差异性的一种工具是MBIT评估。作者展开介绍了其中的几对类型，比如感性vs理性，计划vs感知，专注于目标vs专注于任务等。作者重点介绍了“shaper”这一类人，能实现从计划构思到执行的全过程（作者认为自己是这一类型）。
If you’ve learned anything from this book I hope it’s that everyone has strengths and weaknesses, and everyone has an important role to play in life. Nature made everything and everyone for a purpose. The courage that’s needed the most isn’t the kind that drives you to prevail over others, but the kind that allows you to be true to your truest self, no matter what other people want you to be.
to be true to your truest self,
5: Learn how to make decisions effectively
决策是一门学科，涉及到了概率、博弈、认知科学等诸多方面。
Using decision-making logic to produce the best long-term outcomes has become its own science—one that employs probabilities and statistics, game theory, and other tools.
作者在这一部分介绍了决策（make decision）的两步法：第一步是充分的收集信息（learn），第二步才是做出选择（decide）。
decision making is a two-step process (first learning and then deciding).
对于第一步“收集信息”（synthesize），作者给出了几点提醒：
To synthesize well, you must 1) synthesize the situation at hand, 2) synthesize the situation through time, and 3) navigate levels effectively.
- the biggest threat to good decision making is harmful emotions 避免情绪控制自己，做出错误的决策；而是要使用两步法做出科学的选择。
- 一是充分分析当前的信息
- 评估现状时，首先强调的是延迟判断，避免直接选择首先想到的答案（the first available option）
- 其次是几个平衡，比如在“concept”和“detail”之间保持平衡，在Quick and precise 之间保持平衡，接受不完美。
- 尤其是避免陷入细节，在concept和detail之间获得平衡
- 二是关注“时间序列”，判断信息在时间尺度下的变化情况，这也是复杂系统/系统思考的基本要求，即对随时间变化的感知。比如避免现时偏好（New is overvalued relative to great）， 不要短视和只关注当下，参考《失败的逻辑》读书笔记和《一课经济学》——经济学和生活智慧。
- 三是能切换不同的level，换位思考是一方面，收集来自于不同level层面的信息；
Be imprecise. Understand the concept of “by-and-large” and use approximations.
“When you ask someone whether something is true and they tell you that it’s not totally true, it’s probably by-and-large true.”【统计学上大概率的正确或错误，而非绝对的正确或错误】
Be an imperfectionist. Perfectionists spend too much time on little differences at the margins at the expense of the important things.
对于第二步“做出判断”，值得强调的几点是：
- 基于证据等（Logic, reason, and common sense ）做出客观判断，而非基于直觉做出判断。 当然最好是能把基于证据等方法变成新的直觉（大脑训练）
As previously explained, there are two broad approaches to decision making: evidence/logic-based (which comes from the higher- level brain) and subconscious/emotion-based (which comes from the lower-level animal brain).
As Carl Jung put it, “Until you make the unconscious conscious, it will direct your life and you will call it fate.”
- 其次是基于期望值（expected value）进行选择，用期望值做出判断是一种理性判断，即同时考虑不同情况下的收益和概率。基于期望值判断是一种概率思考和理性思考，也是传统经济学对理性人/经济人的核心假设之一，换言之是考虑机会成本做判断。参考《思考，快与慢》第四部分 选择与风险（一），《错误的行为》第1/2/3部分读书笔记，《魔鬼数学》第三部分 期望值 读书笔记
Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a reward for being right and a probability and a penalty for being wrong.
Once you understand expected value, you also understand that it’s not always best to bet on what’s most probable.
Though we mostly don’t carry out these calculations explicitly, we constantly make them intuitively.
The same principle applies when the downside is terrible. For example, even if the probability of your having cancer is low, it might pay to get yourself tested when you have a symptom just to make sure.
b. Knowing when not to bet is as important as knowing what bets are probably worth making.
c. The best choices are the ones that have more pros than cons, not those that don’t have any cons at all.
- 学会优先级排序/Priorotize，知道何时应该延迟判断以收集更多信息，何时应该基于现有的不完整信息尽快做出判断。
- 学会简化 “Any damn fool can make it complex. It takes a genius to make it simple.”
- 将决策过程变成原则/算法，使用电脑等进行辅助决策；人工智能不可怕，可怕的是不懂原理而过分信任。要充分结合人脑和人工智能（human and artificial intelligence）的优点，做出最好的判断。
Be cautious about trusting AI without having deep understanding.
基于两步法做出最优决策后有，剩下的就是执行了，不执行的决策再完美也毫无用处。
In order to have the best life possible, you have to: 1) know what the best decisions are and 2) have the courage to make them.
Life Principles: putting it all together【记得重读该部分原文】
这一部分详细的梳理了第二部分的观点之间的逻辑关系。
Conclusion 全书结论
没有按照章节顺序阅读，今天读了一下本书最后一部分，算是精华总结，让我联想很多，作者介绍了几个工具，值得强调的是：
- issue log
汇总自己和团队犯过的错误，分析原因，同时做好类型分析，通过认真总结分析错误，错误就变成了财富，就像书中强调fail不重要，重要的是从fail中学到东西，避免重犯类似的错误。 - Pain Button
Pain buton是一个trigger。
一个增强问题意识的工具，每次看到Pain，尽量不要陷入其中，留意自己的情绪等，就像前文提到的high level thinking那样，从更高角度看待自己所陷入的情况。
自己陷入Pain中，做好记录，方便之后情绪恢复之后做复盘和反思Reflection，前文提到了 Pain+Reflection=Progress，如果自己被情绪绑架，就没有progress了。
我想到了《两秒精益》读书笔记：精益思考中的一个观点：我们遇到的每一个烦恼，其实都是消除浪费的好机会，消灭了这个烦恼，我们就做出了一个改善。 - Dispute Resolver
想起冬吴相对论中的一个词“分歧终端机”，这儿强调的是一套解决组织中的不同意见的一套方法，通过询问双方一系列特定问题，引导问题的解决，保证公平。 - Daily Update Tool
作者让自己的手下每天写daily snippets，我从自己也一直保持这个习惯，每天花几分钟整理一天做了什么。
想起了《scrum轻松之旅》中的每日scrum站立会议的三个问题：昨天做了什么，今天要做什么，有什么障碍需要解决？ 这也是daily snippets的一个不错模板。 - Contract Tool
为了保证会议上大家许下的承诺（吹的牛）都能落实下去，避免会后什么都没有发生，作者使用这个工具来记录每个人负责的下一步工作，团队之间互相了解和监督进展情况。
有点像我现在在公司用的Kainzen工具，Projects分解后的tasks都对应一个负责人，Kaizen定期检查整理，确认每个人负责的tasks的completion rate。 - Process flow diagram
公司也是一个机器/系统，所以作者用一个流程图确定机器的运转情况。
这本书的网上读书笔记：【避免重复劳动】
2018.1.10 读完part 1的chapter 1/2/3和part2的principle 1：Embrace Reality and Deal with It。
2018.1.10 整理part2 principle 1 note
2018.1.15/16 整理 5-steps process
2018.1.17 整理conclusion
2018.3.6 更新3，4，5目录和部分细节
2018.3.14 读完part 2，差不多读了两个月
2018.3.17 整理完part 2的读书笔记，最后一部分“Life Principles: putting it all together”值得直接重读原文！